[Video] Did the KPI Move Enough for Me to Care? A High-Level Overview of Holt-Winters Forecasting

This was as much an opportunity to fiddle around with:

• Using RMarkdown to generate slides (this was before I discovered xaringan)
• Using ari to generate a video from slides
• Using Amazon Polly for speech-to-text (so the narrator is the British voice of “Brian”)

The code…not the cleanest, as I was only a couple of years into learning R, but it’s available on Github.

It’s an over-simplification of the Holt-Winters forecasting method, but it does a pretty solid job of explaining the basics of time-series composition (which had blown my mind earlier that year and, I will claim, continues to blow the minds of analysts the first time it’s explained to them):